By Chanakya

Coming off the massive victory in Karnataka and basking in the afterglow of Rahul Gandhi’s successful Bharat Jodo Yatra, the Indian National Congress now gears up for two major fights in the coming months. One will be its struggle to regain control of Madhya Pradesh, while the other will be to retain control over Rajasthan. Assembly elections to these two important states will virtually pave the path to next year’s general elections and will indicate how much weight Congress has before it can take on the heavyweight Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2024.

True, the Congress is on a comeback path on the power of its development and anti-corruption agenda, but undermining the organisational strength of the BJP will be the Congress’ biggest mistake. One such incident almost happened in Karnataka when aspiring chief minister Siddharamaiah declared that he would be banning the Bajrang Dal when he comes to power. It was a sane claim, but the narrative was quickly changed by the BJP from Bajrang Dal, an outlier outfit, to Bajrang Bali, a god. Congress was lucky that the people realised the difference. Karnataka has a knowledgeable population. In the backward states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, however, such mistakes could prove very costly. One cannot discount the insistent social media campaigning of the BJP IT cell.

To be fair, the Congress IT cell seems to have gained enough momentum to counter the BJP IT cell trolls with enough sober, yet intelligent firepower. More than public speeches, people these days seem to be relying on social media forwards.

Let us take a look at the key states going to the polls.

Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh is slated to go to polls by the end of this year. On May 22, five promises were made to the people of Madhya Pradesh. These promises are almost the same as what was made in Karnataka. The Congress’ official Twitter handle said: “Congress’s promise to the people of Madhya Pradesh. We fulfilled our promises in Karnataka, now we will fulfil them in MP too.”

While the state’s chief minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, has publicly pooh-poohed Congress publicity campaigns, there is no doubt that the BJP has been shaken by the massive loss in Karnataka. At the same time, that victory has boosted the morale of the Congress no end.

Chouhan said: “Who cares about Karnataka results? This is Madhya Pradesh. Here, we will register a record victory with great fanfare. What do they (Congress) have? We have Narendra Modi. We have party workers who toil night and day. Congress comes nowhere close. I still have many cards up my sleeve.”

Maybe so, but Chouhan faces attacks from all sides, including former ministers Ajay Bishnoi and Bhanwar Singh Shekhawat. Also, Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti Sangathan (JAYS) is trying to make an impact in Malwa. This will definitely have an impact on some seats.

Infighting

There has been subdued infighting in the BJP and that is now coming out in the open. There seems to be growing discontent in the BJP’s Vindhya unit, because despite winning many seats in the region, it was not given proper representation in the cabinet. For all these reasons, there is a slight disarray and disunity in the BJP. While the party was already reeling under it, the Karnataka results have added fuel to the fire and the Congress’s increased enthusiasm has posed a new challenge for the BJP.

The Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY) seems to have reached further into desperate lands than the ruling BJP had in Karnataka. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJY and Rahul travelled around 382 km, especially across ancient tribal areas such as the Malwa plateau. People he had come in contact during the BJY, would have been influenced to an extent, and if the Karnataka experience sees a repetition, then the influence of the BJY would be substantial. In Karnataka, out of 15 tribal seats, BJP could not win even a single one.

In the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly, 20%, or 47 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (ST). According to experts, about 70 to 80 seats in the state are dominated by tribal voters.

Not that the Congress will have it easy, though. In 2003, the tribal community contributed significantly to the BJP’s return to power in the state. In the next two elections, the BJP continued to get support from the tribal community and remained in power. But in 2018 the tables turned and the BJP, which had won 31 ST seats in 2013, was limited to 16 seats in 2018 and the Congress’s seat share increased from 15 to 30, allowing it to form the government.

The BJP had won a total of 109 seats and Congress won 114 seats in the polls. The margin of victory was so narrow that the BJP was bound to form the government had the tribal voters sided with it.

Rahul has predicted that the Congress will win 150 out of 230 seats in the upcoming assembly election later this year. “Karnataka election result will be repeated in Madhya Pradesh,” Rahul told reporters after the party’s meeting on election preparedness.

“We had a detailed meeting just now, and our internal assessment indicates that after securing 136 seats in Karnataka, we are now projected to win 150 seats in Madhya Pradesh,” Rahul was quoted as saying by news agencies.

In a video shared by a news agency, when asked about the Congress party’s chief ministerial candidate for Madhya Pradesh, Gandhi chose not to provide a direct answer but emphasised the party’s goal of winning 150 seats.

One key person for Congress here will be Kamal Nath, who served as the state chief minister during Congress’ short-lived government in the state between 2018 and 2020. He said: “We discussed the strategy and the issues on which the party should contest these polls. We are all of the opinion that we will enter the poll fray unitedly.”

Besides Rahul Gandhi, Kamal Nath, Digvijay Singh, and AICC general secretary KC Venugopal, met party chief Mallikarjun Kharge to discuss the upcoming assembly election in the state.

Fifth most populous

Madhya Pradesh is the fifth most populous state of India and has a diverse population of many religions & communities. At the census 2011, out of 7.26 crore population, around 6.6 crores (90.89%) have returned themselves as followers of Hindu religion, 4.77 crores (6.57%) as Muslims or the followers of Islam, 5.67 lakhs (0.78%) as Jain, 2.16 lakhs (0.30%) as Buddhists, 2.13 lakhs (0.29%) are Christians, and  in addition 0.12% stated as no religion &  1.04% are other religions.

As per the Census India 2011, Madhya Pradesh has 15093256 households, population of 72626809 of which 37612306 are males and 35014503 are females. The population of children between the ages 0-6 is 10809395 which is 14.88% of the total population.

Rajasthan

Currently, Rajasthan is under the governance of the Congress party, led by Ashok Gehlot.

Rajasthan sees a good Congress stronghold, the big chink in the armour, so to say, being the infighting in the party, with deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot, son of veteran Congress leader, the Late Rajesh Pilot, having gone head-on against Gehlot on many occasions. Even recently, Pilot had started a campaign against Gehlot, till intervention from the Gandhis and Kharge settled the matter. This may blow up to be a similar situation as had been seen in Karnataka after victory, with both Siddharamaiah and DK Shivaklumar claiming the Chief Ministerial seat.

One does not believe any trouble will erupt during the election process, but post election there could be some problems and the Congress will, again, have use its fire-fighting skills.

Gehlot’s administrative acumen, especially with the party, has been well known. This is something the Congress will be depending on. The dependence has been so much that initial ideas of Gehlot emerging as the Congress presidential candidate had also to be shelved.

While the BJP is banking on its campaigner-in-chief Narendra Modi and anti-incumbency to snatch power, it has a weak representation in former chief minister Vasundhara Raje. She did not pick up too many accolades during her stint as CM and those memories still rankle.

Recently, Gehlot announced a slew of freebies, such as free electricity (till 100 units), and the BJP will, obviously match these. However, the BJP’s organisational prowess, under Vasundhara Raje, maybe a bit weak. Of course, the presence of Modi and Amit Shah, and truckloads of money, may turn the tides in certain places, though the Karnataka victory has really rejuvenated the Congress party and its voters, and the going will be tough for the BJP.

Raje is currently holding her own public events in the run-up to assembly polls. The BJP in Rajasthan has no woman mass leader of Raje’s stature. She has proven her might in both Lok Sabha and assembly elections.

BJP insiders claim their party’s internal assessments have indicated that should assembly elections be held in Rajasthan today, it would barely manage to get a simple majority. As the BJP hunts for a winning formula against the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress in the state, can it risk overreliance on potential defectors from the ruling party?

Several BJP leaders in Rajasthan, including those with an RSS background, say that while pursuing the aim of a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’, “we are becoming a Congress-yukt BJP”. They question how election tickets can be denied to the traditional political families in the BJP at the cost of losing seats and how it is justifiable to give tickets, and even ministerial berths, to defectors from traditional Congress families just to win seats.

Observers argue that the BJP has a near-saturated base in Rajasthan, where it had won 163 of the 200 assembly seats while coming to power in 2013. So, the party cannot hope to expand its electoral footprint beyond a point and finish off the Congress altogether.

We will have to wait for the final outcome, but how the two major parties behave in the run up to the polls will determine a lot many smaller issues in each state.

The post Over to MP, Rajasthan appeared first on Views On News.

All exit polls, released on February 27, the last day of the elections to three northeast Indian states, did show a slant towards the BJP winning in Tripura, having a great say in matters of governance in Nagaland and a pretty good third opposition party in Meghalaya as well.

In Tripura it seems the BJP-IPFT alliance is likely to retain power. The assembly in Meghalaya is likely to be a hung one, till MLAs switch sides, because no party has been predicted to cross the half-way mark of 31 seats.

In Nagaland, the NDPP and BJP alliance might win.

Each of the states has 60 assembly seats.

The BJP will look to retain both Tripura – it first came to power here in 2018 – and Nagaland, where it is in alliance with the National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). The National People’s Party (NPP), meanwhile, is looking to retain Meghalaya.

The Assembly elections in Tripura this year have been relatively peaceful,  a testament to the Election Commission of India’s ‘Mission Zero Violence Poll’ initiative. However, post-elections, a series of violent incidents saw one death and 20 others injured, and registration of 22 FIRs, to which Tripura Chief Electoral Officer Kiran Dinkarrao Gitte said that the figures were overall lower than in the previous election years.

Tripura

Tripura voted for the 60-member assembly on February 16 with a three-pronged contest between the BJP and its allies, the Congress and the newly formed Tipra Motha. All exit polls have indicated that the Congress will garner zero seats in the Tripura Assembly. On an average, the Tipra Motha is predicted to gain around 12 seats. According to the Election Commission, the state recorded a voter turnout of nearly 88 per cent. Out of 28.14 lakh voters, around 24.66 lakh voters exercised their franchise. The result will be announced on March 2, 2023.023.

The ruling BJP fielded candidates on 55 of the 60 seats while its ally – the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) put up candidates in six seats. The Left Front, which lost to the BJP-IPFT combine in 2018 after a 20-year-long stint, is contesting in 47 seats. Congress, which has allied with the Left in the state for the first time, has fielded candidates in 13 seats.

Jan ki Baat said the BJP+ is likely to get 43-49 percent of the total vote share. It predicted 41-37 percent vote share for CMP and 15-22 percent vote share for Tipra Motha Party.

BJP+: 29-40 seats
Left: 16-9 seats
Tipra Motha: 14-10 seats
Others: 1 seat

Zee News-Matrize exit poll has also predicted BJP victory in Tripura with 29 to 36 votes. The National People’s Party will retain Meghalaya with 21 to 26 seats.

Meghalaya is set to witness a hung assembly this year, according to the exit poll predictions. However, it is to be noted that exit poll projections may or may not be the same as actual results.

According to the IndiaToday-MyAxis exit poll the NDPP is likely to get 28-34 seats in the 60-member Assembly with a vote share of 33 per cent, while BJP is predicted to get 10-14 seats, with a surprising 16 per cent vote share.The Congress is predicted to bag somewhere between 1-2 seats, and get 10 per cent votes, and the Naga People’s Front is forecast to get 13 per cent vote share and between 3-8 seats, according to the exit poll survey. 

Times Now-ETG exit poll

NDA: 24
SDF: 21
TMP: 14

Others: 1.

Meghalaya

Meghalaya is likely to see a stiff contest with many of the exit polls predicting that the Conrad Sangma-led NPP will emerge the single largest party. 

The state voted for 375 candidates in 59 assembly states. A party needs to win at least 31 seats to win the majority mark in Meghalaya. In the 2018 Meghalaya Assembly election, the NPP won 19 seats and the BJP won two seats. The United Democratic Party (UDP) emerged victorious in six constituencies. Although the Congress emerged as the largest single party with over 21 seats, the NPP-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA), came to power with support from BJP, UDP, and other regional parties.

India Today-Axis My India poll

NPP: 18-24 seats

Congress: 6-12 seats
BJP: 4-8 seats
Others: 4-8

According to Jann Ki Baat, Meghalaya will see a hung assembly – TMC: 14-19, UDP: 10-14, NPP: 11-16, Congress: 11-16, BJP: 3-7, PDF: 2-4, and others: 3-8.

Times Now-ETG

With 18-26 seats, NPP advanced in Meghalaya, while Trinamool and United Democratic Party (UDP) won 8-14 seats each. BJP to bag 3-6 seats:  

Zee News-Matrize

As per Zee News-Matrize exit poll, 21-26 seats to the ruling NPP in the 60-member house. BJP to get 6-11 seats, and Congress 3-6 seats,Trinamool Congress, which is looking to expand beyond Bengal, will bag 8-13 seats in Meghalaya.

Times Now-ETG Research exit poll seat share

Times Now-ETG Research exit poll has predicted a maximum of 26 seats for the NPP, while TMC and UDP are likely to get 8 to 14 seats.

Nagaland assembly election

The BJP is contesting 20 seats while the NDPP contests 40 seats under a seat-sharing agreement. The Congress has fielded candidates from 23 seats while the NPP has contenders for 22. While the parties contested separately, the Congress had previously indicated its willingness to enter into a post-poll alliance.

There is definitely more cause for celebration for the BJP in this state, with India Today, Times Now and Zee News each giving it a massive win.

Axis My India-India Today exit poll seat share:

India Today-Axis My India poll predicts

NDPP+: 49
Congress: 10
NPF: 13
Others: 28

Times Now shares exit polls figures

Nagaland

NDA: 44
NPF: 6
Congress: 0
Others: 9

Zee News-Matrize exit poll seat share

Allies NDPP and BJP will retain Nagaland by winning 35-43 seats in the 60-seat assembly; Naga People’s Front 2-5, and Congress 1-3.

The Jan ki Baat poll indicated that the BJP and NDPP would secure 35 to 45 seats while the NPF bagged six to 10 seats. Meanwhile the Times Now-ETG Research poll suggested slightly better odds for the BJP and its allies with 39 to 49 seats. It predicted that the NPF would secure four to eight seats. Both these exit polls have forecast that the Congress will fail to open its account in the state

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Goa
Goa recorded a nearly 79% voting turnout (78.94%), yet failed to reach its own record of 82.56%, set during the 2017 elections. Normally, such high turnouts indicate an anti-incumbency sentiment among the voters, but when the general turnout remains high, the situation is difficult to tell.

The figures are till 6 pm (end of day). North Goa recorded voter turnout of 79.84 per cent and South Goa recorded 78.15 per cent.

As per the ECI, Goa had 1,722 polling stations in the elections. A total of 11,56,762 voters were eligible to cast their ballots.

In the 2017 Goa assembly elections Congress became the single largest party with 17 (28.4%) seats, while BJP had won 13 (32.5%). GFP won 3 (3.5%) seats, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party won 3 (11.3%) seats.

However, equations changed after the polls and BJP managed to lure many MLAs to form the government.

Uttar Pradesh
Till 6pm, UP had seen a voter turnout of 62.9%, which was lower than 65.53% recorded in 2017. The following is the district-wise turnout:

Amroha – 66.19%, Bareilly – 57.88%, Bijnor – 61.48%, Budaun – 55.91%, Moradabad – 64.88%, Rampur – 60.30%, Saharanpur – 55.25%, Sambhal – 56.93%, Shahjahanpur – 55.25%.

In the second phase, polling took place for 55 assembly seats in nine districts. Of these 55, seven were reserved seats.

As many as 2,01,42,441 voters were eligible to exercise their franchise in the second phase. Of them, 1,07,61,476 were male voters and 93,79,704 female and 1,261 third gender voters.

Earlier in 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 38 of the 55 constituencies, Samajwadi Party had bagged 13 and the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had got two seats each.

Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand recorded a voter turnout of 62.5% till 6 pm. In 2017, the Uttarakhand election had seen 64.72% turnout.

 The state, which has an electorate of 81 lakh, 632 candidates, including 152 independents, are fighting from 70 seats.

In the 2017 Uttarakhand  assembly elections BJP became the single largest party with 57 (45.4%) seats, while Congress had won 11(33.5%).

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Uttar Pradesh
Till 3 Pm, UP had seen a voter turnout of 51.9%. The following is the district-wise turnout:

Amroha – 60.06%, Bareilly – 50.18%, Bijnor – 51.79%, Budaun – 47.42%, Moradabad – 56.04%, Rampur – 52.74%, Saharanpur – 56.7%, Sambhal – 49.11%, Shahjahanpur – 46.86%.

In the second phase, polling is taking place for 55 assembly seats in nine districts. Of these 55, seven are reserved seats.

As many as 2,01,42,441 voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in the second phase. Of them, 1,07,61,476 are male voters and 93,79,704 are female and 1,261 third gender voters.

Earlier in 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 38 of the 55 constituencies, Samajwadi Party had bagged 13 and the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had got two seats each.

Goa
Till 3 pm, Goa recorded a voter turnout of nearly 60.2%.

As per the ECI, Goa will has 1,722 polling stations in the elections. A total of 11,56,762 voters are eligible to cast their ballots.

In the 2017 Goa assembly elections Congress became the single largest party with 17 (28.4%) seats, while BJP had won 13 (32.5%). GFP won 3 (3.5%) seats, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party won 3 (11.3%) seats.
However, equations changed after the polls and BJP managed to lure many MLAs to form the government.

Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand recorded a voter turnout of 49.2% till 3 pm.

The state, which has an electorate of 81 lakh, 632 candidates, including 152 independents, are fighting from 70 seats.

In the 2017 Uttarakhand  assembly elections BJP became the single largest party with 57 (46.4%) seats, while Congress had won 11(33.5%).

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Uttar Pradesh
Till 1Pm, UP had seen a voter turnout of 39.07%. The following is the district-wise turnout:

Amroha – 40.90%, Bareilly – 39.41%, Bijnor – 38.64%, Budaun – 35.57%, Moradabad – 42.28%, Rampur – 40.10%, Saharanpur – 42.44%, Sambhal – 38.01%, Shahjahanpur – 35.47%.

In the second phase, polling is taking place for 55 assembly seats in nine districts. Of these 55, seven are reserved seats.

As many as 2,01,42,441 voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in the second phase. Of them, 1,07,61,476 are male voters and 93,79,704 are female and 1,261 third gender voters.

Earlier in 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 38 of the 55 constituencies, Samajwadi Party had bagged 13 and the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had got two seats each.


Goa
Till 1pm, Goa recorded a voter turnout of nearly 44.63%.

As per the ECI, Goa will has 1,722 polling stations in the elections. A total of 11,56,762 voters are eligible to cast their ballots.

In the 2017 Goa assembly elections Congress became the single largest party with 17 (28.4%) seats, while BJP had won 13 (32.5%). GFP won 3 (3.5%) seats, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party won 3 (11.3%) seats.
However, equations changed after the polls and BJP managed to lure many MLAs to form the government.


Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand recorded a voter turnout of 35.21% till 1 pm. The state, which has an electorate of 81 lakh, 632 candidates, including 152 independents, are fighting from 70 seats.

In the 2017 Uttarakhand  assembly elections BJP became the single largest party with 57 (46.4%) seats, while Congress had won 11 (33.5%).

The post UP voting at 39% by 1pm, Goa ahead appeared first on Views On News.

Uttar Pradesh
Till 11am, UP had seen a voter turnout of 23.03%. the following is the district-wise turnout.

Amroha – 22.99%, Bareilly – 20.99%, Bijnor – 24.34%, Budaun – 21.87%, Moradabad – 25.99%, Rampur – 21.76%, Saharanpur – 25.26%, Sambhal – 22.95%, Shahjahanpur – 21.58%.

In the second phase, polling is taking place for 55 assembly seats in nine districts. Of these 55, seven are reserved seats.

As many as 2,01,42,441 voters are eligible to exercise their franchise in the second phase. Of them, 1,07,61,476 are male voters and 93,79,704 are female and 1,261 third gender voters.

Earlier in 2017, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 38 of the 55 constituencies, Samajwadi Party had bagged 13 and the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had got two seats each.

Goa
Till 11am, Goa recorded a voter turnout of nearly 27%.

As per the ECI, Goa will has 1,722 polling stations in the elections. A total of 11,56,762 voters are eligible to cast their ballots.

In the 2017 Goa assembly elections Congress became the single largest party with 17 (28.4%) seats, while BJP had won 13 (32.5%). GFP won 3 (3.5%) seats, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party won 3 (11.3%) seats. However, equations changed after the polls and BJP managed to lure many MLAs to form the government.

Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand recorded a voter turnout of 19% till 11 am. The state, which has an electorate of 81 lakh, 632 candidates, including 152 independents, are fighting from 70 seats.

In the 2017 Uttarakhand  assembly elections BJP became the single largest party with 57 (46.4%) seats, while Congress had won 11 (33.5%).

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