Exit polls: A tilt towards BJP

The saffron party is expected to extend its rule in Tripura, while a hung house seems likely in Meghalaya. Nagaland will be for local parties, with the BJP likely coming in third.

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By Chanakya

All exit polls, released on February 27, the last day of the elections to three northeast Indian states, did show a slant towards the BJP winning in Tripura, having a great say in matters of governance in Nagaland and a pretty good third opposition party in Meghalaya as well.

In Tripura it seems the BJP-IPFT alliance is likely to retain power. The assembly in Meghalaya is likely to be a hung one, till MLAs switch sides, because no party has been predicted to cross the half-way mark of 31 seats.

In Nagaland, the NDPP and BJP alliance might win.

Each of the states has 60 assembly seats.

The BJP will look to retain both Tripura – it first came to power here in 2018 – and Nagaland, where it is in alliance with the National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). The National People’s Party (NPP), meanwhile, is looking to retain Meghalaya.

The Assembly elections in Tripura this year have been relatively peaceful,  a testament to the Election Commission of India’s ‘Mission Zero Violence Poll’ initiative. However, post-elections, a series of violent incidents saw one death and 20 others injured, and registration of 22 FIRs, to which Tripura Chief Electoral Officer Kiran Dinkarrao Gitte said that the figures were overall lower than in the previous election years.

Tripura

Tripura voted for the 60-member assembly on February 16 with a three-pronged contest between the BJP and its allies, the Congress and the newly formed Tipra Motha. All exit polls have indicated that the Congress will garner zero seats in the Tripura Assembly. On an average, the Tipra Motha is predicted to gain around 12 seats. According to the Election Commission, the state recorded a voter turnout of nearly 88 per cent. Out of 28.14 lakh voters, around 24.66 lakh voters exercised their franchise. The result will be announced on March 2, 2023.023.

The ruling BJP fielded candidates on 55 of the 60 seats while its ally – the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) put up candidates in six seats. The Left Front, which lost to the BJP-IPFT combine in 2018 after a 20-year-long stint, is contesting in 47 seats. Congress, which has allied with the Left in the state for the first time, has fielded candidates in 13 seats.

Jan ki Baat said the BJP+ is likely to get 43-49 percent of the total vote share. It predicted 41-37 percent vote share for CMP and 15-22 percent vote share for Tipra Motha Party.

BJP+: 29-40 seats
Left: 16-9 seats
Tipra Motha: 14-10 seats
Others: 1 seat

Zee News-Matrize exit poll has also predicted BJP victory in Tripura with 29 to 36 votes. The National People’s Party will retain Meghalaya with 21 to 26 seats.

Meghalaya is set to witness a hung assembly this year, according to the exit poll predictions. However, it is to be noted that exit poll projections may or may not be the same as actual results.

According to the IndiaToday-MyAxis exit poll the NDPP is likely to get 28-34 seats in the 60-member Assembly with a vote share of 33 per cent, while BJP is predicted to get 10-14 seats, with a surprising 16 per cent vote share.The Congress is predicted to bag somewhere between 1-2 seats, and get 10 per cent votes, and the Naga People’s Front is forecast to get 13 per cent vote share and between 3-8 seats, according to the exit poll survey. 

Times Now-ETG exit poll

NDA: 24
SDF: 21
TMP: 14

Others: 1.

Meghalaya

Meghalaya is likely to see a stiff contest with many of the exit polls predicting that the Conrad Sangma-led NPP will emerge the single largest party. 

The state voted for 375 candidates in 59 assembly states. A party needs to win at least 31 seats to win the majority mark in Meghalaya. In the 2018 Meghalaya Assembly election, the NPP won 19 seats and the BJP won two seats. The United Democratic Party (UDP) emerged victorious in six constituencies. Although the Congress emerged as the largest single party with over 21 seats, the NPP-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA), came to power with support from BJP, UDP, and other regional parties.

India Today-Axis My India poll

NPP: 18-24 seats

Congress: 6-12 seats
BJP: 4-8 seats
Others: 4-8

According to Jann Ki Baat, Meghalaya will see a hung assembly – TMC: 14-19, UDP: 10-14, NPP: 11-16, Congress: 11-16, BJP: 3-7, PDF: 2-4, and others: 3-8.

Times Now-ETG

With 18-26 seats, NPP advanced in Meghalaya, while Trinamool and United Democratic Party (UDP) won 8-14 seats each. BJP to bag 3-6 seats:  

Zee News-Matrize

As per Zee News-Matrize exit poll, 21-26 seats to the ruling NPP in the 60-member house. BJP to get 6-11 seats, and Congress 3-6 seats,Trinamool Congress, which is looking to expand beyond Bengal, will bag 8-13 seats in Meghalaya.

Times Now-ETG Research exit poll seat share

Times Now-ETG Research exit poll has predicted a maximum of 26 seats for the NPP, while TMC and UDP are likely to get 8 to 14 seats.

Nagaland assembly election

The BJP is contesting 20 seats while the NDPP contests 40 seats under a seat-sharing agreement. The Congress has fielded candidates from 23 seats while the NPP has contenders for 22. While the parties contested separately, the Congress had previously indicated its willingness to enter into a post-poll alliance.

There is definitely more cause for celebration for the BJP in this state, with India Today, Times Now and Zee News each giving it a massive win.

Axis My India-India Today exit poll seat share:

India Today-Axis My India poll predicts

NDPP+: 49
Congress: 10
NPF: 13
Others: 28

Times Now shares exit polls figures

Nagaland

NDA: 44
NPF: 6
Congress: 0
Others: 9

Zee News-Matrize exit poll seat share

Allies NDPP and BJP will retain Nagaland by winning 35-43 seats in the 60-seat assembly; Naga People’s Front 2-5, and Congress 1-3.

The Jan ki Baat poll indicated that the BJP and NDPP would secure 35 to 45 seats while the NPF bagged six to 10 seats. Meanwhile the Times Now-ETG Research poll suggested slightly better odds for the BJP and its allies with 39 to 49 seats. It predicted that the NPF would secure four to eight seats. Both these exit polls have forecast that the Congress will fail to open its account in the state