This means two critical things. firstly, Sibal will not look back at Congress, and secondly, if Akhilesh has helped Sibal in filing his nomination after the latter quit Congress, then the possibility of a Congress-SP alliance for 2024 grows weak.

Sibal talked to the media during the programme. He said: “I want to be an independent voice in Rajya Sabha.” What that means in these days of acute polarisation, only Sibal can say, but his leaving Congress is a big blow no doubt. Just the other day Hardik Patel and Sunil Jhakar resigned from the Congress and Hardik is nearer to the BJP than ever before.

Sibal added: “It is important to be an independent voice in parliament. If an independent voice speaks up then people will believe it is not from any political party.”

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The exit polls, released on the night of March 7, were not number-prefect, but gave the right direction, especially for Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Seasoned experts and journalists were at a loss to explain how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Admi Party (AAP) managed the sweeps. If the agencies conducting the exit polls could get a fair picture of the trend, why could expert reporters not? These reporters have been covering polls for years, if not decades, and it is at the final hurdle that they always topple.

One can call out the failures of the BJP, led by Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh. One can cite the Covid deaths, of the hundreds of dead bodies in the Ganges and in the Yamuna, of deaths due to lack of oxygen, of the illegal shootouts and killings of criminals by security forces, of the Hathras rape and the cover up. But look at this: not only did the mother of the Hathras rape victim also lose in the polls, memories of worst days during the reign of Akhilesh Yadav may not have lingered. Akhilesh, too, waited till the last four months before venturing out of his air conditioned palace and into an air conditioned prachaar rath, but by then it was too late.

And to give due credit, Yogi did spend money and effort in development projects in Purvanchal, even though western UP was a neglected. He did provide a sense of security to the women, something that was completely missing during the time of Akhilesh or his father Mulayam Singh Yadav. On can gauge this disenchantment in the fact that 16% more votes were polled by women for the BJP. That is a big shift.

Also, even though the women centric prachaar of Priyanka Gandhi: ‘Ladki hoon, lad sakti hoon” and her promise of more women in administration could have gelled with the fairer sex, the overarching disenchantment with the Congress probably did her in. Also, it was inexplicable to the public why she herself did not stand for elections, or why the Congress did not present a Chief ministerial face.

The Congress leadership, it seems, is risk averse. It wants to appropriate all the gains and refuses to own up to any adverse effects of their own campaigns. This is not a sign of strength, not to the public.

The main issue
This, amid the BJP landslide in UP and the AAL landslide in Punjab, the main issue lies in the ineffectiveness of the Congress. The entire Congress setup is slowly being reduced to a regional party, and within a decade, it might exist only in history books and archives.

That is, if it does not undergo a complete overhaul, or throws out the raja-praja system of intra-party governance. Only two states remain with the party, Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh, and it ‘rules’ in alliance in Jharkhand and Maharashtra. The last two are in name only, with barely any say in the functioning of the government.

Rajasthan goes to the polls late next year and Chattisgarh selects a new government around the same time, November-December 2023. The way things are going, the last two Congress bastions may also disappear, with to the BJP or to another regional party.

In UP the Congress had won 388 seats in 1952, when the state was intact and had 430 seats. The numbers had kept fluctuating, mostly reducing, over the years, with 1985 having been the last decent polling for the party. That year it had won 269 of 425 seats. The recent numbers (see graphic) are as follows – 2002: 25; 2007:  22; 2012: 28; 2017: 7; 2022: 2.

In Punjab, the Congress numbers in recent years have been as follows – 2007: 44; 2012: 46; 2017: 77; 2022: 18.

Numbers, however, are just indicators. They do not tell the inside story of this 136-year-old Grand Old Party. The degeneration has happened through years of lack of attention to details, of how the state units have functioned, of how much resentment has grown among grassroots workers.

There have been allegations from local satraps that when they have even managed to get an appointment with Rahul Gandhi (and that seems to be a difficult task), the eternal Prince of the party, spent the entire time of the ‘interview’ playing with his dog instead. Rahul Gandhi has been missing in action on several occasions, with reports coming in of his Italy trips. These do not go down well with local leaders or the starving population of the country.

One has to remember the complete lack of Congress strategy in Delhi. When Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit lost and the Aam Admi Party (AAP) took over, the Congress was already tottering and the BJP had already become the biggest competitor to the AAP. Yet, Dikshit and then Ajay Maken, spent their time launching into tirades against Arvind Kejriwal & Co, instead of concentrating on rebuilding the Congress, already in dire straits.

There are no permanent friends or permanent enemies in politics. Any tactical alliance with the AAP could have kept Congress within reach of the seat of power. Petty issues, instead, filled their minds.

Similar was the situation in West Bengal. Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress were roaring through the ballot boxes, and were sure to win. Till very late, Mamata had retained her soft corner for the Congress (her parent party) and for Sonia Gandhi. The Congress had no chance in the state, but Mamata still wanted some tactical support from Sonia, to stop the incessant shouting from state party president Adhir Chowdhury.

Possibly the Delhi model was what gave Punjab hope. It wil be a big task for Arvind kejriwal & Co to try and replicate that in this big state.

Not only did the party – the elections was being managed by Rahul – pay no heed to her requests, it renewed its attack on Mamata and made things difficult for her, especially in the northern district of Malda. Strategically, this made no sense at all.

The result was, not only was the Congress wiped clean off the face of this state, but Mamata adopted a stance that saw her actively campaigning against the Congress across the country. One cannot blame Mamata for that.

Hara-kiri
The effort at hara-kiri of the Congress was seen in Rajasthan as well. Following the bungled case of Jyotiraditya Scindia in Madhaya Pradesh – he finally left the Congress and is now a virtually non-functioning Union minister (aviation) – Sachin Pilot was pressured to toe the line of an ageing Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan. Sachin is supposedly a ‘buddy’ of Rahul, but he is also the son of Rajesh Pilot, once a heavyweight Congressman, soiled in the anti-Sikh riots case. Sachin’s case was badly handled, and it was only the Congress’ good luck that he did not leave too. He will be posturing for the CM’s post in the next elections for sure.

The biggest bungle, of course, was in Punjab. Amarinder Singh, the incumbent CM, may not have been a popular leader – this was proved when the Raja of Patiala lost his home seat to AAP’s Ajit Pal Kohli by 19,873 votes – but he was able to control the factions within the party. He managed that, till Navjot Singh Sidhu came to the fore, of course. And it was, again, Rahul Gandhi, who stoked the fire of discontent, by promoting Sidhu to state party president. The rest is ugly history.

Amarinder may not have won his seat, but what he effectively managed was cut Congress votes in Patiala.

Later, Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala tweeted an explanation which, for the lack of any other appropriate word, can only be called stupid. He said: “In Punjab, Congress presented a new leadership through Charanjit Singh Channi who is son of the soil, but the entire anti-incumbency of 4.5 years under Captain Amarinder Singh could not be overcome and hence people voted for AAP for change.”

Amarinder tweeted in reply: “The @INCIndia leadership will never learn! Who is responsible for the humiliating defeat of Congress in UP? What about Manipur, Goa, Uttrakhand?

“The answer is written in BOLD LETTERS on the wall but as always I presume they will avoid reading it.”

The entire Congress party risks becoming the butt of jokes across the country, and least because of Rahul Gandhi’s oddly smiling picture on social media, enjoying a sundae before results were announced. It is because, time after time, it has failed to realise that the party has completely lost connect with the common man, the grassroots. The party leaders have no idea which way the wind is blowing, forget which way it might tomorrow.

AAP and the BJP have huge tasks at hand, or building and rebuilding states, while the Congress’ task is of rebuilding the party. The group of 23 – alleged rebels – met in Delhi soon after the defeat, but could not come up with any plan of action towards rebuilding the party or against the current leadership.

Meanwhile, either the AAP, or the DMK, or the Trinamool Congress could position itself as a national alternative to the BJP, toppling the Congress for good.

The post The Die is Cast appeared first on Views On News.

BJP 259-288

SP 128 or thereabouts

BSP 7 or thereabouts

INC 5

Others 2

At 12:50 Pm

The status of UP CM Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reached the sky. In UP, the BJP has swept aside the BSP a storm does to fallen leaves. The leads explain all.

The following are the leads at around 12.50pm:

BJP 268

SP 126

BSP 3 or thereabouts

INC 3

Others 3

The status of UP CM Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reached the sky. In UP, the BJP has swept aside the BSP as a storm does fallen leaves. The leads explain all.

The following are the seats won and the leads at 5.10pm:
BJP 266

SP 132

BSP 1

INC 2

Others 2

Final Result Status:

BJP+ Wins Second Term With 273 Seats.

SP+ give tough fight and won 125 seats.

4 times UP CM Mayawati’s Party BSP won only 1 seats and Congress won 2 seats.

others:2 seats.

Here are the major loses/wins.

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath won at Gorakhpur Urban by a margin of over 1 lakh votes.

Former Chief Minister and Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav won Karhal Assembly constituency, a stronghold of SP, by a margin of at least 61,000 votes.

Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya lost to Union Minister Anupriya Patel’s sister Pallavi Patel in Sirathu by a margin of 7337 votes.

Swami Prasad Maurya lost against his BJP rival Surendra Kumar Kushwaha by over 27,000 votes.

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The BJP victory in UP was expected. However, western UP should have been a stumbling block. That has not happened, it seems. The issues of farm laws, price rise, the Covid deaths and the treatment of the dead, the stranded labourers were all stacked against the government of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

For the final verdict one has to wait till March 10, when the counting happens.

Here are the details of the polls:

UTTAR PRADESH
India today-My Axis India Exit Poll has predicted 288-326 seats for the BJP.
BJP: 288-326, SP: 71-101, BSP: 3-9, Congress: 1-3.

C-Voter exit poll has predicted 228-244 seats for the BJP, 132-148 for the SP, 13-21 for the BSP, 4-8 for Congress and 2-6 for others.

The Today’s Chanakya exit poll predicts 294 seats for BJP, 105 for SP, 2 for BSP, 1 for Congress and 1 for others.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicted 222-260 for BJP, 135-165 for SP, 4-9 for BSP, 1-3 for Congress and 3-4 for others.

The Times Now-Veto exit poll has predicted 225 seats for BJP, 151 for SP, 14 for Congress and 9 for others.

PUNJAB
India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll says the Aam Aadmi Party is set for a landslide victory. The poll predicted that Arvind Kejriwal-led party will win 41 per cent of votes or 76-90 seats in the 117-seat Assembly. Congress gets 19-31 seats, 7-11 for SAD+, 1-4 for BJP+

The C-Voter exit poll has predicted 22-28 seats for Congress, 7-13 seats for BJP, 51-61 for the AAP and 20-16 for the Akali Dal.

Today’s Chanakya exit poll has predicted 100 seats for AAP, 10 for the Congress and 6 for the SAD.

Times Now-Veto exit poll predicts 70 seats for AAP, 22 for the Congress, 19 for the Akali Dal and 5 for the BJP.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll has predicted 18-31 seats for Congress, 60-84 for AAP, 12-19 for Akali Dal and 3-7 for the BJP.

UTTARAKHAND
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted 44 per cent of the total vote share for BJP in Uttarakhand, with 36-46 seats. The Congress could get 40 per cent, bagging anywhere between 20-30 seats, followed by the BSP with 0-2 seats.

The C-Voter exit poll has predicted 26-32 seats for the BJP, 32-38 seats for Congress, 0-2 for AAP and 3-7 for others.

Today’s Chanakya exit poll predicts 43 seats for the BJP, 24 for the Congress and 3 for others.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicts 32-41 seats for BJP, 27-35 seats for Congress, 1 seat for AAP, 1 seat for BSP and 3 seats for others.

Times Now-Veto exit poll has predicted 37 seats for the BJP, 31 seats for the Congress and 1 for AAP.

GOA
India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll predicts a hung verdict:

BJP likely to get 14-18 seats, Congress 15-20 seats.

The C-Voter exit poll has predicts 13-17 seats for the BJP, 12-16 for the Congress, 5-9 for the TMC and 0-2 for others.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicted 13-19 seats for the BJP, 14-19 for the Congress, 1-2 for the MGP, 3-5 for AAP and 1-3 for others.

Times Now-Veto exit poll has predicted 14 seats for the BJP, 16 for the Congress, 4 for the AAP and 6 for others.

MANIPUR
India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll predicts BJP win with 33-43 seats, 4-8 seats each for the Congress, NPP and NPF and 0-7 seats for others.

The C-Voter exit poll has predicted 23-27 seats for BJP, 12-16 for Congress, 10-14 for NPP and 3-7 for NPF.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicts 23-28 seats for BJP, 10-14 for Congress, 7-8 for NPP, 5-8 for NPF and 8-9 for others.

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The state has seen a decrease in voter turnout in the last three phases. In the previous six phases, the state recorded a turnout of 62.43 percent, 64.42 percent, 62.28 percent, 61.52 percent, 57.32 percent and 55.79 percent. The state had recorded 61.24 percent polling in the 2017 assembly elections.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency Varanasi – the BJP candidate here is Ravindra Jaiswal in the north – recorded 54.12%, but the highest was at Sonbhadra, which recorded 61%% voting.

Chandauli recorded 60.5% and Azamgarh 53.12%.

The rest were as follows: Jaunpur 54.22%, Ghazipur 53.95%, Mirzapur 56%, Bhadohi 56.12% andMau: 59%.

In this final phase as many as 2.06 crore eligible voters will decide the fate of 613 candidates contesting for 54 seats.

One of the most-watched candidates in this phase is former minister Om Prakash Rajbhar, who is contesting from the Zahoorabad seat. Rajbhar had won the seat in 2017 as a candidate of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, which was a BJP ally.

In 2017, BJP along with its allies Apna Dal and SBSP made their inroads by winning 29 seats, but this time SBSP has gone with Akhilesh. In the last election, BSP got six seats and Samajwadi Party got 11 seats.

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The focal point of Monday’s polls is Varanasi, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition had won all eight Assembly segments in 2017, bestriding the “Modi wave”.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency Varanasi the BJP candidate here is Ravindra Jaiswal in the north recorded 43.90%, but the highest was at Chandauli , which recorded 50.75% voting.

Sonbhadra recorded 49.82% and Azamgarh 45.25%.

The rest were as follows: Jaunpur 47.18%, Ghazipur 45.56%, Mirzapur 44.64%, and Bhadohi 47.50%

In this final phase as many as 2.06 crore eligible voters will decide the fate of 613 candidates contesting for 54 seats.

One of the most-watched candidates in this phase is former minister Om Prakash Rajbhar, who is contesting from the Zahoorabad seat. Rajbhar had won the seat in 2017 as a candidate of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, which was a BJP ally.

In 2017, BJP along with its allies Apna Dal and SBSP made their inroads by winning 29 seats, but this time SBSP has gone with Akhilesh. In the last election, BSP got six seats and Samajwadi Party got 11 seats.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency Varanasi – the BJP candidate here is Ravindra Jaiswal in the north – recorded 21.21%, but the highest was at Mau, which recorded 24.74% voting.

Chandauli recorded 23.73% and Azamgarh 21.42%.0

The rest were as follows: Jaunpur 21.84%, Ghazipur 19.35, Mirzapur 23.41%, Bhadohi 22.41% and Sonbhadra: 19.68%.

In this final phase as many as 2.06 crore eligible voters will decide the fate of 613 candidates contesting for 54 seats.

One of the most-watched candidates in this phase is former minister Om Prakash Rajbhar, who is contesting from the Zahoorabad seat. Rajbhar had won the seat in 2017 as a candidate of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, which was a BJP ally.

In 2017, BJP along with its allies Apna Dal and SBSP made their inroads by winning 29 seats, but this time SBSP has gone with Akhilesh. In the last election, BSP got six seats and Samajwadi Party got 11 seats.

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The sixth phase of Uttar Pradesh polls will be held in 57 Assembly seats spread across 10 districts. With 676 candidates in the fray, all eyes are however fixed on the Gorakhpur Assembly seat as head of the Gorakhnath temple and incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is contesting his first Assembly elections from Gorakhpur. CM Adityanath is contesting against Chandra Shekhar Azad, head of Bhim Army, and Azad Samaj Party. Chandra Shekhar is focussing on Dalit atrocities in the BJP regime and is using his campaign to consolidate Dalits.

A total of 2,14,62,816 voters including 1,14,63,113 males, 99,98,383 females and 1,320 third genders are expected to exercise their right to franchise to seal the fate of 676 candidates. 

The BJP will hope the Bahujan Samaj Party remains a strong contestant. Only a strong BSP can ensure a triangular fight in an election that has so far been seen as a bipolar one between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party. A triangular fight can mean a split of the anti-BJP votes.

The fate of several state ministers such as Surya Pratap Shahi, Satish Chandra Dwivedi, Jai Pratap Singh, Shree Ram Chauhan and Jai Prakash Nishad would also be decided in the sixth phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2022.

In 2017, out of these 57 seats, BJP won 46, BSP 5, SP 2, Congress one seat.

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The following is the district-wise turnout:
Balrampur – 18.98% , Siddharthnagar-23.42,  Maharajganj- 21.22%, Kushinagar-23.24%,  Basti -23.32%, Sant Kabir Naga-20.83%,  Ambedkar Nagar-23.10%, Gorakhpur-21.81%,  Deoria -19.58% and Ballia- 21.87%.

This phase is being held across 57 Assembly seats spread across 10 districts. With 676 candidates in the fray, all eyes are however fixed on the Gorakhpur Assembly seat as head of the Gorakhnath temple and incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is contesting his first Assembly elections from Gorakhpur. CM Adityanath is contesting against Chandra Shekhar Azad, head of Bhim Army, and Azad Samaj Party.

Chandra Shekhar is focussing on Dalit atrocities in the BJP regime and is using his campaign to consolidate Dalits.

A total of 2,14,62,816 voters including 1,14,63,113 males, 99,98,383 females and 1,320 third genders are expected to exercise their right to franchise to seal the fate of 676 candidates.

The BJP will hope the Bahujan Samaj Party remains a strong contestant. Only a strong BSP can ensure a triangular fight in an election that has so far been seen as a bipolar one between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party. A triangular fight can mean a split of the anti-BJP votes.

The fate of several state ministers such as Surya Pratap Shahi, Satish Chandra Dwivedi, Jai Pratap Singh, Shree Ram Chauhan and Jai Prakash Nishad would also be decided in the sixth phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2022.

In 2017, out of these 57 seats, BJP won 46, BSP 5, SP 2, Congress one seat.

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Other districts in focus such as Unnao had a below-par turnout of 55%. Hardoi, where PM Narendra Modi campaigned for BJP on Sunday, reported 57%. Fatehpur’s 57.9% though lower than the average for the fourth phase.State Capital Lucknow recorded 60.5% voter turnout. A total of 624 candidates and 2.13 crore voters are in the fray for 59 assembly seats.

In the fourth phase, polling will be held in Rohilkhand, Terai region,Awadh and Bundelkhand regions.

This phase includes 16 reserved constituencies.

Pilibhit, Lakhimpur-Kheri, Sitapur, Lucknow, Hardoi, Unnao, Rae Bareli, Fatehpur and Banda, nine districts will go to polls in the fourth phase.

As many as 800 companies of paramilitary forces and over 60,000 policemen have been positioned for security across 59 assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh. Voting will be held at 13,813 polling stations and 24,580 polling booths in 208 police station areas.

In the 2017 elections, the BJP had won 51(41.15% voting share) of 59 seats. One seat(0.65% voting share) was won by its ally Apna Dal (S).

The BJP-led coalition won 52 seats. Four(21.7% voting share) were won by SP, while two seats(7.7% voting share) were won by the Congress and two(22.2% voting share) by the BSP.

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