Exit polls are not accurate science. Much of it depends on the sample size, the nature and constituents of t he sample and the trustworthiness of those surveyed immediately after polling. Having all this in mind, there has been surprised looks all around when all polls predicted a massive BJP victory in UP and an AAP victory in Punjab in the decently concluded assembly elections.
The BJP victory in UP was expected. However, western UP should have been a stumbling block. That has not happened, it seems. The issues of farm laws, price rise, the Covid deaths and the treatment of the dead, the stranded labourers were all stacked against the government of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
For the final verdict one has to wait till March 10, when the counting happens.
Here are the details of the polls:
UTTAR PRADESH
India today-My Axis India Exit Poll has predicted 288-326 seats for the BJP.
BJP: 288-326, SP: 71-101, BSP: 3-9, Congress: 1-3.
C-Voter exit poll has predicted 228-244 seats for the BJP, 132-148 for the SP, 13-21 for the BSP, 4-8 for Congress and 2-6 for others.
The Today’s Chanakya exit poll predicts 294 seats for BJP, 105 for SP, 2 for BSP, 1 for Congress and 1 for others.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicted 222-260 for BJP, 135-165 for SP, 4-9 for BSP, 1-3 for Congress and 3-4 for others.
The Times Now-Veto exit poll has predicted 225 seats for BJP, 151 for SP, 14 for Congress and 9 for others.
PUNJAB
India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll says the Aam Aadmi Party is set for a landslide victory. The poll predicted that Arvind Kejriwal-led party will win 41 per cent of votes or 76-90 seats in the 117-seat Assembly. Congress gets 19-31 seats, 7-11 for SAD+, 1-4 for BJP+
The C-Voter exit poll has predicted 22-28 seats for Congress, 7-13 seats for BJP, 51-61 for the AAP and 20-16 for the Akali Dal.
Today’s Chanakya exit poll has predicted 100 seats for AAP, 10 for the Congress and 6 for the SAD.
Times Now-Veto exit poll predicts 70 seats for AAP, 22 for the Congress, 19 for the Akali Dal and 5 for the BJP.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll has predicted 18-31 seats for Congress, 60-84 for AAP, 12-19 for Akali Dal and 3-7 for the BJP.
UTTARAKHAND
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted 44 per cent of the total vote share for BJP in Uttarakhand, with 36-46 seats. The Congress could get 40 per cent, bagging anywhere between 20-30 seats, followed by the BSP with 0-2 seats.
The C-Voter exit poll has predicted 26-32 seats for the BJP, 32-38 seats for Congress, 0-2 for AAP and 3-7 for others.
Today’s Chanakya exit poll predicts 43 seats for the BJP, 24 for the Congress and 3 for others.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicts 32-41 seats for BJP, 27-35 seats for Congress, 1 seat for AAP, 1 seat for BSP and 3 seats for others.
Times Now-Veto exit poll has predicted 37 seats for the BJP, 31 seats for the Congress and 1 for AAP.
GOA
India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll predicts a hung verdict:
BJP likely to get 14-18 seats, Congress 15-20 seats.
The C-Voter exit poll has predicts 13-17 seats for the BJP, 12-16 for the Congress, 5-9 for the TMC and 0-2 for others.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicted 13-19 seats for the BJP, 14-19 for the Congress, 1-2 for the MGP, 3-5 for AAP and 1-3 for others.
Times Now-Veto exit poll has predicted 14 seats for the BJP, 16 for the Congress, 4 for the AAP and 6 for others.
MANIPUR
India Today – Axis My India Exit Poll predicts BJP win with 33-43 seats, 4-8 seats each for the Congress, NPP and NPF and 0-7 seats for others.
The C-Voter exit poll has predicted 23-27 seats for BJP, 12-16 for Congress, 10-14 for NPP and 3-7 for NPF.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicts 23-28 seats for BJP, 10-14 for Congress, 7-8 for NPP, 5-8 for NPF and 8-9 for others.
